Stevens has a business where he sells sports betting picks called VIP Sports  Las Vegas.

The CNBC  press release for the show calls him "a well-known handicapper," and a promo  video on his company's website claims he has a winning percentage of 71.5%. The  show is a "docu-soap," and it's set to air Sept. 10.


But apparently no one in Vegas has heard of Stevens, and his 70% winning 
percentage is considered impossible.

Even worse, a damning report from WagerMinds lays out  evidence alleging that
his name is actually Darin Notaro, and he has been  arrested multiple times for
telemarketing fraud. 

Todd Fuhrman, a former oddsmaker at Caesar's Palace, wrote in a blog post
, "No one, and I mean no one,  in the sports betting community I speak with
daily knows who this guy is."

Prime Wagers spoke with our very own Sports Betting mastermind Phil Vassallo,
he said, "I have never heard of this Steve Stevens or Darin Notaro".

Prime Wagers — a sports betting website that is focused on transparency in the 
industry — also said they've never heard of him in their article.

Bob Voulgaris, a popular sharp NBA bettor, said on Twitter that  he'd never
heard of Stevens either, calling him "a complete scam artist" for the 70% claim.

The 70% claim was a red flag for a lot of sports betting folks. Voulgaris, 
whom Nate Silver called the best sports bettor in  the world, only wins about
57% of his NBA bets. SportsInsights ran the  numbers in June and found that
your chances of winning 70% of bets against the  spread are about one in one
trillion.

It's basically impossible to win 70%, but the VIP Sports  Las Vegas website is
using that claim to sell its picks to customers. Here's  the promo video from the
website (with NSFW language):

A CNBC spokesman told us in a statement that viewers will have to draw their 
own conclusions about Stevens' business, adding, "We are merely betting 
that viewers will be interested in the world of touts and handicappers and in no 
way endorse either Stevens’ picks or his business model."

While CNBC says it doesn't endorse his business, there's a website 
called CNBCvipsports.com that directs readers to the VIP  Sports Las Vegas
site and asks readers for their email addresses and phone  numbers.

A CNBC spokesman told us, "He is not authorized to use the CNBC name or logo."
CNBC declined comment on whether or not they're taking steps to remove  the
association on the website.

The website boasts, "You may have seen VIP Sports on the new CNBC show Money 
Talks. If so you know Steve Stevens is the real deal."

Before we jump on CNBC, there's a big difference between Stevens being a 
fraud and the show itself being a fraud. We'll have to wait to see how he is 
portrayed.

But that's not all.

WagerMinds reported that the domain name  for Stevens' business VIP Sports
Las Vegas was only registered eight months ago.  It was registered under the
name Darin Notaro.

According to WagerMinds, Notaro has been arrested and convicted in  telemarketing
scams going back to 1999. He was sentenced to a year in prison at  age 25 for a scheme
that "bilked elderly citizens across the nation out of at  least $234,000," according to the Las
Vegas Sun.

Judging by this screenshot from WagerMinds, they look  alike:

According to WagerMinds, it appears that Notaro also rents the office space 
where VIP Sports Las Vegas is housed.

A CNBC spokesman said they are aware of the 1999 conviction. Here's the full 
statement:

"We are aware of Steve Stevens’ 1999 conviction  and while we are very clear in
the press release that VIP Sports clients risk  big dollars in the hopes that Stevens
and his agents have the expertise to  consistently deliver winners, viewers should
tune in on September 10th at 10pm  ET/PT to draw their own conclusions about
VIP Sports. We are merely betting that viewers will be interested in the world of touts
and handicappers and in no way endorse either Stevens’ picks or his business model."

We called the number provided on the VIP Sports Las Vegas website and left a 
message. We are waiting a response.

Again, we'll have to wait until the show airs to see if he is portrayed as what he claims
to be (a big-shot sports bettor) or what many in the betting community see him as (a shady figure).

Ever since the Arena Football League's debut in 1987, it has been widely viewed with skepticism by most NFL fans and football bettors in general. The game is played indoors on a field that is 85-feet wide and 50-yards long. Players, who are often too small or too slow to make it into the NFL, are required to play on both sides of the ball. Punting is not allowed. 

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The creators of the game wanted to create a high-scoring, offensive brand
of football that would be attractive to fans that had grown tired of the
defensive battles in the NFL. They haven't had much success in capturing a wide
audience, but that may be changing.

The league signed a deal with NBC in 2002 for the network to televise games.
The contract, which gave NBC an equity stake in the league, provides the AFL
with a real chance to survive and possibly even flourish during the winter-spring
months when the NFL is in its off season. 

Just as the Arena Football League is increasing in popularity among fans across the
country thanks to the NBC deal, it is also seeing an increase in handle at sportsbooks
in Las Vegas and overseas. While many books have taken Arena Football action for
years, some have recently experienced a small surge in handle on the sport and
sportsbook managers believe that trend will increase in the future.

"We're not getting a whole lot of action, but probably more than last year," says
Bob Scucci, race and sportsbook manager for the Stardust. "We are putting 'totals'
on every game, which is something we didn't do last year. (It's because of) the fact
that they play during a real slow part of the (year), namely in February where you
haven't hit the peak of March Madness yet and it's after the Super Bowl. There's a
month when people might crave something different. (The Arena Football League)
might just fill a void."

Since arena football is a new phenomenon to many books and managers have
higher-volume sports to worry about, bookies that take AFL action rely heavily on
odds services like Las Vegas Sports Consultants for opening odds, line movements
and injury updates. Ken White, the new owner of LVSC, has been handicapping the
Arena Football League for years and is considered an expert on the sport by many
in the industry. 

White's oddsmaking strategy for the Arena Football League is similar that of other
sports, even though the game itself is much different. In developing power
ratings, he assigns numerical values to players for each of the 19 teams in the
league. Since most players play offense and defense, the process of developing
these numbers is much different than that of the NFL.

"I have to try and find out what their true position was, if they were an offensive or
defensive player in college or even in the NFL or NFL Europe," says White. "I
think they will be stronger on that side of the ball. So I will try and find out
if (teams) have a mix of those guys. Because if they have all offensive players,
they are going to be weak defensively and if they have all defensive players
they are going to be weak offensively."

Size and speed are evaluated differently in the AFL. White says that speed is not
as big of a factor in arena football because the field is so much smaller. While offensive
linemen in the NFL average around 330 pounds, a player in that position in the AFL
would not be considered undersized at 280 pounds. "I would probably give (an offensive
lineman) who is 280 pounds a pretty good size rating," he says. 

The Arena Football League was designed as an offensive league, with most combined
scores for a game nearing the century mark. According to White, the quarterback
position is rated much differently than it would be in the NFL.


"Because (the quarterbacks) pass for so many more yards and so many more
touchdowns, I have taken an average of the league and how the league does and I
have changed my rating scales to how the AFL would come out in average
quarterback (rating), it's much different than an NFL guy," adds White. "So the
offensive ratings are a lot higher than the defensive ratings, that's why you
get higher totals in the games."

As it is in the NFL, kicking is also a big factor in the AFL. However, field goals and
extra points are done much differently in the arena game. In the AFL, the goal posts
are nine-feet wide with a crossbar height of 15 feet (as opposed to NFL goal posts,
which are 18 ½ feet wide with a crossbar height of 10 feet). One point is awarded for
a normal post-touchdown conversion and two points are earned for a conversion by
drop kick. A field goal counts for three points and a field goal by drop kick tallies
four points. "It is good to have an accurate kicker (in the AFL)," says White.
"A couple of the better teams have the better kickers."

Since players play both offense and defense in the Arena Football League, injuries are also a
very important factor for oddsmakers and handicappers, maybe even more so than
in the NFL. Arena teams have 19-man active rosters and eight players are on the
field during play. Besides the kicker and quarterback, each team has one
offensive specialist and two defensive specialists. All other players go both
ways.

Home field advantage in arena football counts for five points in the point spread, as
opposed to the NFL where it counts for three, according to White. This is both because
the games are higher scoring and that the crowds in the AFL are livelier and they are
right on top of the action because of the way the fields are configured. 

All these differences make the AFL tough to handicap for oddsmakers. White says that
LVSC spends almost as much time on their arena numbers that they spend on setting lines
for the 'major' sports. 


"I feel the numbers are (solid)," comments White. "We put a lot of work into them.
We've seen huge differences so far between ourselves and the offshore
(sportsbooks) because they put up different lines out there and it's kind of a
little competition we've got now, to see who makes the better number. 


"The tough part about it is that right now there isn't a lot of action out there
besides 'wise guy' action. There's just not a lot of people going to the book to
bet arena football. Somehow we want to change that and get more people involved.
Since the games are on NBC now we can get some more people involved by watching
and going down to the book to place a wager. We know that it is all 'sharp'
money coming in (on the AFL) so we have to be on our toes in this sport and make
the best number we can."

Despite White's assertion that the lines for the Arena Football League are solid,
Scucci says that his lines at the Stardust see a lot of movement, which gives
bettors a wide range of options in terms of the numbers they can get on a particular
game, especially with totals. As a result, the Stardust and most other books offer
low limits on arena games.


"(Totals) are a lot more volatile," he says. "When you are talking
about totals that are close to 100, you can be five or six points off and it
won't make much of a difference. To see a five or 10 point move on a total
wouldn't be out of the question. "To see a ('side') move from 'pick' to four is
not unusual at all. So that is just an indication that that the lines are not
solid and there is going to be a great deal of trial and error before we really
nail this down.

"You can have a lot of exposure (on arena football games), even with low limits.
It doesn't take long to lose a lot of money when you are four or five points off from
where you should be. There is going to be a learning curve. We went through the
same thing with NASCAR 10 years ago when we started booking it. When the
bettors know a lot more about the sport than you do, it makes it difficult to put up solid lines."

One reason arena football may eventually have widespread success in both the sports
betting world and the business world is that, unlike the other sports leagues, the AFL has
realized that embracing the sports betting industry may help them achieve their
long-term goals.

"(The AFL) is in favor of advertising point spreads and letting people know about the
sport and who's favored," says Scucci. "They are not fighting the casino industry to
get our lines off the games. They realize that betting on the games can be a positive
to the sport. As a result, the league has been very cooperative in giving information
about injuries or anything we need to know. It helps when you have the cooperation
of the league." 

Arena Football: A Whole Different Ballgame
by Jeremy Martin

There has been quite a lot of noise made in the Professional Handicapping circles about where Phil Vassallo originated from. To set the record straight, he is originally from Athens, Greece. He is known by his friends as "Phil the Greek". He spent a lifetime as a professional gambler, mostly in Horse Racing. In the last decade he got turned onto sports betting and says he never looked back. The cigar smoking Phil Vassallo managed to beat other Sports Handicappers that have been in the business for a lifetime. He held an impressive 56% win ratio in the 2012 NFL Season and says he plans to do even better in 2013.

He says his strategy is betting on the previous seasons dogs. The dogs are the NFL teams that really struggled. The teams with the 2-14 record that nobody wants to bet on. Well someone does, Phil the Greek will take those dogs. Why you ask? Well he explains that losing teams usually do better the following years. They have more to prove and have very little to lose. Sportsbooks also give  these "dog" teams the best lines. Anybody that knows anything about Sports Betting will tell you that it is all about getting a more favorable line.

Phil says there are a few contenders for the team that will go against all odds and become the "dog to bet"  for 2013. Currently it's the Jacksonville Jaguars. Yes, the team with the worst record in the NFL for 2012. He is also looking at two more teams to beat the odds. The Oakland Raiders and Philadelphia  Eagles.
 

Step #1:

(PW) 4% of bankroll 20% of the time.

(PW) stands for "Prime Wagers".

For example: If your bankroll is $400 then your prime wagers will be $16 (4% of $400).

Prime Wagers will be made in 2 out of every 10 games that are bet on average. 





Prime Wagers are the best plays of the day. They don't have to be a sure shot that is "suppose to be" much the best. For example: A Prime Wager can be a win bet on a True Odds Overlay. 

a Top Pick or Best Overlay that looks solid, etc, etc.

As mentioned in several other articles it is highly recommended that the player has
a separate bankroll for win bets and exotics.

Please Note:
Every player should have a "win bets bankroll" first and foremost. If the
player has a decent size overall bankroll it can be split up for win bets and
exotics and each exotic type wager gets a bankroll.

For example:
A player has a $1000 overall bankroll. $400 of that becomes the win bets bankroll,
$300 becomes the exacta bets bankroll and $300 becomes the pick 3 bankroll, etc. 

If the player does have a large enough overall bankroll to split, it is
recommended that at least 40% of it becomes the "win bets bankroll". The
rest can be divided into the exotic wagers that are desired most by the player. 

It has been proven by many experts over the decades that win bets are
the most productive type of wager. 

Step #2:

(RW) 2% of bankroll 50% of the time.

(RW) stands for "Regular Wagers".

For example: If your bankroll is $400 then
your regular bets will be $8 (2% of $400).

Regular Wagers will be made by the player in 5 out of every 10 games on average.

Regular Wagers are nothing special like prime bets but are still worth playing. They can be a
win bet using the Conservative / Powerful Betting strategy strategy, etc. 



Step #3:

(AW) 1% of bankroll 30% of the time.

(AW) stands for "Action Wagers".


For example: If your bankroll is $400 then your action bets will be $4
(1% of $400).

Action Wagers will be made by the player in 3 out of every 10 games on average.

Action wagers are basically bets just to have "action". Since many players only wager on the weekends or such, they don't like to pass a game.

This is acceptable as long as a small percentage
of bankroll is wagered on these games. It is ideal to actually pass certain 
 games when you are not liking the line but many players simply choose not to.

 
Summary:

Billy Walters Practices Bankroll Management

Walters uses the data from his systems to come up with his own lines and then
bets on the differences.  He varies his bet amount by how much different
his own line is from the sportsbook’s line.  He mentions that he had won a
record amount on the Saints/Colts Superbowl: $3.5M.  Clearly he took
advantage of substantial differences in his own projections vs. the oddsmakers
and the higher betting limits that a Superb Bowl allows.

Billy Walters Is Very Astute About Line Moves

For anyone paying attention, this was the real revelation about the
program.  Walters was speaking to one of his beards on the phone (guys who
place bets for him) and he was very strict saying that if a casino would allow
him a half point, he would play, and if not he would hold off.  Line moves
are the #1 way for a bettor to beat the house, without question.

To do some math, remember that as the bettor, you are risking money in the
proportion of $110 to win $100 when you bet.  Therefore you need to win
approximately 52.4% of the time to win money.  Line moves give you an
opportunity to blow these odds out of the water.  Even if your system was
flipping a coin, picking up an extra point in the NFL would give you an extra
4.6-6.0 percent chance of winning – meaning just by being astute about shopping
for lines, you have increased your chances from 50% to around 55% on each game
which over the course of a season will lead to huge returns.  In the NBA, a
point is even more pronounced, giving the gambler an extra 5.8-6.6%
advantage.  Realizing how the numbers are stacked in a line shopper’s
favor, it is no wonder that Billy Walters was so emphatic and disciplined about
a half point…

Our take away

While Billy Walters didn’t give away the farm regarding his betting
philosophy, it was nice to see such a big fish in our little corner of the
world, sports betting, get some mainstream airtime.  While Walters let on
that he was serious about system betting, and we believe him, he offered little
into what criteria he considers when looking for an advantage.  The most
telling part was what he said to his beard about line shopping: he was very
serious about gaining an advantage from line moves.  The numbers bear him out:

 Line Moves are the number one way to profit in Sport Betting. Take that to the bank!

Today, Prime Wagers has launched our own Sports Betting Forum where our subscribers can now discuss sports betting topics and sports tips.

Our first Prime Wagers Hot Topic is a forum about the Hottest Female Athletes. Click on Prime Wagers Hot Topics on the forums page and you will see it. Feel free to post who you think is the absolute hottest female in the world of sports.

Some of the latest additions to the "Hot Female Athletes" topic are Beach Volleyball star Sara Hughes, Race Car Driver Danica Driver, WWE star Stacy Keibler and Tiger Woods' Skiing Hottie Lindsey Vonn. Who else should be there?